All Symbols
AAPL
27 runs · 2024-01-02 → 2026-03-11
Best Return
+9.8%
Best Alpha
+7.5pp
LLM Accuracy
57.4%
Total Runs
27
Alpha is the LLM strategy's return minus the buy-&-hold (B&H) return over the same period — how much the model beat simply holding the stock. +101.5 pp means the strategy outperformed buy-&-hold by 101.5 percentage points (pp = percentage points).
Next Trading Day Prediction
WAIT
Predicted for: 2026-03-12NEUTRALConfidence: 50%
Last close: $260.81
The trend gate is open but daily confirmations are too weak to buy yet, so we wait for better signals.
Performance by Month
(latest 6)| Month | Start | End | Return | B&H | Alpha | Trades | Win% | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $13,468.97 | $13,467.94 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Feb 2026 | $13,188.35 | $13,468.97 | +2.1% | -1.9% | +4.0pp | 1 | 100% | Completed |
| Jan 2026 | $12,614.88 | $13,188.35 | +4.5% | -2.9% | +7.5pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Dec 2025 | $12,614.88 | $12,614.88 | +0.0% | -5.0% | +5.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Nov 2025 | $12,568.55 | $12,614.88 | +0.4% | +3.4% | -3.0pp | 1 | 100% | Completed |
| Oct 2025 | $12,275.09 | $12,568.55 | +2.4% | +5.2% | -2.8pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
Prediction Accuracy by Model
| Evaluated | Accuracy | BUY Acc. | SELL Acc. | WAITs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 216 | 57.4% | 57.1% | 61.1% | 333 |
Period Summaries
(all runs combined)| Period | Days | Start | End | P&L | Return | Alpha | Trades | Win% | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q4 | 64 | $12,275.09 | $12,614.88 | $339.79 | +2.8% | -3.8pp | 1 | 100% | 2.8% vs6.5% |
| 2025-Q3 | 64 | $11,971.95 | $12,275.09 | $303.14 | +2.5% | -20.1pp | 5 | 60% | 2.5% vs22.7% |
| 2025-Q2 | 62 | $12,588.79 | $11,971.95 | -$616.84 | -4.9% | +3.1pp | 2 | 0% | -4.9% vs-8.0% |
| 2025-Q1 | 60 | $12,626.09 | $12,588.79 | -$37.30 | -0.3% | +8.5pp | 1 | 0% | -0.3% vs-8.8% |
| 2024-Q4 | 64 | $11,570.08 | $12,626.09 | $1,056.01 | +9.1% | -1.7pp | 2 | 50% | 9.1% vs10.8% |
| 2024-Q3 | 64 | $11,180.24 | $11,570.08 | $389.84 | +3.5% | -4.1pp | 1 | 100% | 3.5% vs7.6% |
| 2024-Q2 | 63 | $9,816.45 | $11,180.24 | $1,363.79 | +13.9% | -10.1pp | 4 | 75% | 13.9% vs24.0% |
| 2024-Q1 | 58 | $10,000.00 | $9,816.45 | -$183.55 | -1.8% | +9.7pp | 1 | 0% | -1.8% vs-11.6% |
| Date | Close | Rec | Trade Action | Trade P&L | Unrealized | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $260.81 | BUY | HOLD | — | -$1.03 | $13,467.94 |
| 2026-03-10 | $260.83 | BUY | BUY | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-03-09 | $259.88 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-03-06 | $257.46 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-03-05 | $260.29 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-03-04 | $262.52 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-03-03 | $263.75 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-03-02 | $264.72 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-27 | $264.18 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-26 | $272.95 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-25 | $274.23 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-24 | $272.14 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-23 | $266.18 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-20 | $264.58 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-19 | $260.58 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-18 | $264.35 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-17 | $263.88 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-13 | $255.78 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-12 | $261.73 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-11 | $275.50 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-10 | $273.68 | SELL | SELL | $854.09 | $854.09 | $13,468.97 |
| 2026-02-09 | $274.62 | BUY | HOLD | — | $765.12 | $13,380.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | $277.86 | BUY | HOLD | — | $811.07 | $13,425.95 |
| 2026-02-05 | $275.65 | BUY | HOLD | — | $969.47 | $13,584.35 |
| 2026-02-04 | $276.23 | BUY | HOLD | — | $861.43 | $13,476.31 |
| 2026-02-03 | $269.23 | BUY | HOLD | — | $889.78 | $13,504.66 |
| 2026-02-02 | $269.76 | BUY | HOLD | — | $547.56 | $13,162.44 |
| 2026-01-30 | $259.24 | BUY | HOLD | — | $573.47 | $13,188.35 |
| 2026-01-29 | $258.04 | BUY | HOLD | — | $59.16 | $12,674.04 |
| 2026-01-28 | $256.20 | BUY | HOLD | — | $0.49 | $12,615.37 |