All Symbols
LLY
27 runs · 2024-01-02 → 2026-03-11
Best Return
+18.2%
Best Alpha
+8.7pp
LLM Accuracy
60.5%
Total Runs
27
Alpha is the LLM strategy's return minus the buy-&-hold (B&H) return over the same period — how much the model beat simply holding the stock. +101.5 pp means the strategy outperformed buy-&-hold by 101.5 percentage points (pp = percentage points).
Next Trading Day Prediction
WAIT
Predicted for: 2026-03-12NEUTRALConfidence: 30%
Last close: $999.84
The main trend indicator isn't improving this week, so we're staying on the sidelines until conditions align better.
Performance by Month
(latest 6)| Month | Start | End | Return | B&H | Alpha | Trades | Win% | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $15,892.12 | $15,892.12 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Feb 2026 | $15,892.12 | $15,892.12 | +0.0% | +5.0% | -5.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Jan 2026 | $15,892.12 | $15,892.12 | +0.0% | -0.4% | +0.4pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Dec 2025 | $15,892.12 | $15,892.12 | +0.0% | +2.7% | -2.7pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Nov 2025 | $13,448.26 | $15,892.12 | +18.2% | +18.8% | -0.6pp | 1 | 100% | Completed |
| Oct 2025 | $13,266.16 | $13,448.26 | +1.4% | +5.2% | -3.9pp | 2 | 50% | Completed |
Prediction Accuracy by Model
| Evaluated | Accuracy | BUY Acc. | SELL Acc. | WAITs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238 | 60.5% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 311 |
Period Summaries
(all runs combined)| Period | Days | Start | End | P&L | Return | Alpha | Trades | Win% | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q4 | 64 | $13,266.16 | $15,892.12 | $2,625.96 | +19.8% | -10.6pp | 3 | 67% | 19.8% vs30.4% |
| 2025-Q3 | 64 | $12,830.34 | $13,266.16 | $435.82 | +3.4% | +4.8pp | 2 | 50% | 3.4% vs-1.4% |
| 2025-Q2 | 62 | $12,219.98 | $12,830.34 | $610.36 | +5.0% | +8.0pp | 2 | 100% | 5.0% vs-3.0% |
| 2025-Q1 | 60 | $12,214.64 | $12,219.98 | $5.34 | +0.0% | -6.3pp | 2 | 50% | 0.0% vs6.3% |
| 2024-Q4 | 64 | $12,758.63 | $12,214.64 | -$543.99 | -4.3% | +8.3pp | 3 | 33% | -4.3% vs-12.6% |
| 2024-Q3 | 64 | $13,074.69 | $12,758.63 | -$316.06 | -2.4% | +0.6pp | 2 | 50% | -2.4% vs-3.0% |
| 2024-Q2 | 63 | $12,063.02 | $13,074.69 | $1,011.67 | +8.4% | -10.9pp | 2 | 50% | 8.4% vs19.2% |
| 2024-Q1 | 61 | $10,000.00 | $12,063.02 | $2,063.02 | +20.6% | -2.9pp | 2 | 100% | 20.6% vs23.5% |
| Date | Close | Rec | Trade Action | Trade P&L | Unrealized | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $999.84 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-03-10 | $1,001.35 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-03-09 | $1,008.39 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-03-06 | $990.33 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-03-05 | $983.26 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-03-04 | $1,003.57 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-03-03 | $1,007.73 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-03-02 | $1,017.97 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-27 | $1,051.99 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-26 | $1,022.02 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-25 | $1,028.83 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-24 | $1,042.15 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-23 | $1,058.56 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-20 | $1,009.52 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-19 | $1,023.22 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-18 | $1,020.56 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-17 | $1,036.05 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-13 | $1,040.00 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-12 | $1,036.54 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-11 | $1,013.52 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-10 | $1,023.29 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-09 | $1,042.93 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-06 | $1,056.42 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-05 | $1,019.14 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-04 | $1,105.28 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-03 | $1,001.79 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-02-02 | $1,042.39 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-01-30 | $1,035.42 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-01-29 | $1,022.43 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |
| 2026-01-28 | $1,022.09 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $15,892.12 |