All Symbols
MSFT
27 runs · 2024-01-02 → 2026-03-11
Best Return
+7.1%
Best Alpha
+7.6pp
LLM Accuracy
56.9%
Total Runs
27
Alpha is the LLM strategy's return minus the buy-&-hold (B&H) return over the same period — how much the model beat simply holding the stock. +101.5 pp means the strategy outperformed buy-&-hold by 101.5 percentage points (pp = percentage points).
Next Trading Day Prediction
WAIT
Predicted for: 2026-03-12NEUTRALConfidence: 30%
Last close: $404.88
The key weekly trend signals aren't fully aligned yet, so it's safest to wait for stronger confirmation before buying.
Performance by Month
(latest 6)| Month | Start | End | Return | B&H | Alpha | Trades | Win% | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $10,805.47 | $10,830.88 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 1 | 100% | Completed |
| Feb 2026 | $10,805.47 | $10,805.47 | +0.0% | -4.3% | +4.3pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Jan 2026 | $12,494.47 | $10,805.47 | -13.5% | -9.0% | -4.5pp | 3 | 0% | Completed |
| Dec 2025 | $12,811.16 | $12,494.47 | -2.5% | -1.3% | -1.2pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Nov 2025 | $12,811.16 | $12,811.16 | +0.0% | -4.2% | +4.2pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Oct 2025 | $12,826.83 | $12,811.16 | -0.1% | +0.4% | -0.5pp | 1 | 0% | Completed |
Prediction Accuracy by Model
| Evaluated | Accuracy | BUY Acc. | SELL Acc. | WAITs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 232 | 56.9% | 57.7% | 47.4% | 317 |
Period Summaries
(all runs combined)| Period | Days | Start | End | P&L | Return | Alpha | Trades | Win% | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q4 | 64 | $12,826.83 | $12,494.47 | -$332.36 | -2.6% | +4.2pp | 1 | 0% | -2.6% vs-6.8% |
| 2025-Q3 | 64 | $12,652.26 | $12,826.83 | $174.57 | +1.4% | -4.1pp | 1 | 100% | 1.4% vs5.4% |
| 2025-Q2 | 62 | $11,306.63 | $12,652.26 | $1,345.63 | +11.9% | -18.5pp | 2 | 50% | 11.9% vs30.4% |
| 2025-Q1 | 60 | $10,772.16 | $11,306.63 | $534.47 | +5.0% | +15.1pp | 2 | 50% | 5.0% vs-10.1% |
| 2024-Q4 | 64 | $10,582.68 | $10,772.16 | $189.48 | +1.8% | +1.4pp | 2 | 50% | 1.8% vs0.4% |
| 2024-Q3 | 64 | $10,889.01 | $10,582.68 | -$306.33 | -2.8% | +2.8pp | 3 | 33% | -2.8% vs-5.6% |
| 2024-Q2 | 63 | $10,100.02 | $10,889.01 | $788.99 | +7.8% | +2.3pp | 2 | 100% | 7.8% vs5.5% |
| 2024-Q1 | 61 | $10,000.00 | $10,100.02 | $100.02 | +1.0% | -5.3pp | 3 | 33% | 1.0% vs6.3% |
| Date | Close | Rec | Trade Action | Trade P&L | Unrealized | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $404.88 | SELL | SELL | $25.41 | $25.41 | $10,830.88 |
| 2026-03-10 | $405.76 | BUY | HOLD | — | $48.95 | $10,854.42 |
| 2026-03-09 | $409.41 | BUY | HOLD | — | $146.59 | $10,952.06 |
| 2026-03-06 | $408.96 | BUY | HOLD | — | $134.56 | $10,940.02 |
| 2026-03-05 | $410.68 | BUY | HOLD | — | $134.56 | $10,940.02 |
| 2026-03-04 | $405.20 | BUY | HOLD | — | $180.57 | $10,986.04 |
| 2026-03-03 | $403.93 | BUY | HOLD | — | $33.97 | $10,839.44 |
| 2026-03-02 | $398.55 | BUY | BUY | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-27 | $392.74 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-26 | $401.72 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-25 | $400.60 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-24 | $389.00 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-23 | $384.47 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-20 | $397.23 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-19 | $398.46 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-18 | $398.69 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-17 | $395.96 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-13 | $400.41 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-12 | $400.92 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-11 | $403.45 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-10 | $412.33 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-09 | $412.66 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-06 | $400.23 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-05 | $392.77 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-04 | $413.25 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-03 | $410.27 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-02-02 | $422.41 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-01-30 | $429.31 | SELL | SELL | -$1,197.17 | -$1,197.17 | $10,805.47 |
| 2026-01-29 | $432.51 | BUY | HOLD | — | -$1,020.66 | $10,981.97 |
| 2026-01-28 | $480.53 | BUY | HOLD | — | -$938.81 | $11,063.83 |