All Symbols
MSFT
18 runs · 2025-04-10 → 2026-09-09
Best Return
+16.5%
Best Alpha
+12.1pp
LLM Accuracy
66.7%
Total Runs
18
Alpha is the LLM strategy's return minus the buy-&-hold (B&H) return over the same period — how much the model beat simply holding the stock. +101.5 pp means the strategy outperformed buy-&-hold by 101.5 percentage points (pp = percentage points).
Next Trading Day Prediction
WAIT
Predicted for: 2026-09-10NEUTRALConfidence: 20%
Last close: $491.65
The weekly trend signals are not aligned for a new long position, so stay out.
Portfolio Summary
Starting Fund
$10,000.00
Initial Capital
Current Fund
$17,394.43
as of 2026-09-09
Total Gain / Loss
$7,394.43
+73.9%
Current Position
● FLATNo open position
Performance by Month
(latest 6)| Month | Start | End | Return | B&H | Alpha | Trades | Win% | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | $17,612.11 | $17,394.43 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Aug 2026 | $16,422.67 | $17,612.11 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Jul 2026 | $14,174.41 | $16,422.67 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Jun 2026 | $13,858.00 | $14,174.41 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| May 2026 | $13,693.79 | $13,858.00 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Apr 2026 | $12,907.65 | $13,693.79 | +6.1% | +9.2% | -3.1pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
Prediction Accuracy by Model
| Evaluated | Accuracy | BUY Acc. | SELL Acc. | SHORT Acc. | COVER Acc. | WAITs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 66.7% | 66.7% | — | — | — | 15 |
| 69 | 66.7% | 65.6% | 66.7% | 80.0% | — | 170 |
| 9 | 44.4% | 50.0% | 0.0% | — | — | 64 |
Period Summaries
(all runs combined)| Period | Days | Start | End | P&L | Return | Alpha | Trades | Win% | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q3 | 3 | $14,174.41 | $17,386.79 | $3,212.38 | +22.7% | +22.7pp | 0 | — | 22.7% vs0.0% |
| 2026-Q2 | 2 | $13,707.26 | $14,201.80 | $494.54 | +3.6% | +3.6pp | 1 | 0% | 3.6% vs0.0% |
| 2026-Q1 | 61 | $12,795.45 | $12,907.65 | $112.20 | +0.9% | +22.6pp | 5 | 60% | 0.9% vs-21.7% |
| 2025-Q4 | 64 | $12,850.33 | $12,795.45 | -$54.88 | -0.4% | +6.5pp | 1 | 100% | -0.4% vs-6.9% |
| 2025-Q3 | 64 | $13,015.71 | $12,850.33 | -$165.38 | -1.3% | -6.5pp | 1 | 100% | -1.3% vs5.3% |
| 2025-Q2 | 55 | $10,000.00 | $13,015.71 | $3,015.71 | +30.2% | -0.3pp | 1 | 100% | 30.2% vs30.4% |
| Date | Close | Rec | Trade Action | Trade P&L | Unrealized | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | $491.65 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,394.43 |
| 2026-09-08 | $493.95 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,394.43 |
| 2026-09-04 | $499.70 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,394.43 |
| 2026-09-03 | $510.12 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,394.43 |
| 2026-09-02 | $496.82 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,394.43 |
| 2026-09-01 | $501.02 | BUY | HOLD | — | $161.44 | $17,394.43 |
| 2026-08-31 | $507.29 | BUY | HOLD | — | $379.12 | $17,612.11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $513.53 | BUY | HOLD | — | $595.76 | $17,828.75 |
| 2026-08-27 | $505.06 | WAIT | HOLD | — | $301.70 | $17,534.69 |
| 2026-08-26 | $496.37 | BUY | BUY | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-25 | $491.71 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-24 | $487.31 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-21 | $483.24 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-20 | $481.15 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-19 | $484.31 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-18 | $481.63 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-17 | $480.35 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-14 | $495.40 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-13 | $496.88 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-12 | $492.43 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-11 | $503.81 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-10 | $506.06 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-07 | $499.99 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-06 | $499.86 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-05 | $487.46 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-04 | $492.81 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-08-03 | $487.65 | BUY | HOLD | — | $3,058.58 | $17,232.99 |
| 2026-07-31 | $464.72 | WAIT | HOLD | — | $2,248.26 | $16,422.67 |
| 2026-07-30 | $451.10 | BUY | HOLD | — | $1,766.94 | $15,941.35 |
| 2026-07-29 | $390.54 | WAIT | HOLD | — | -$373.18 | $13,801.23 |