All Symbols
MSFT
16 runs · 2025-04-10 → 2026-07-24
Best Return
+16.5%
Best Alpha
+12.1pp
LLM Accuracy
66.7%
Total Runs
16
Alpha is the LLM strategy's return minus the buy-&-hold (B&H) return over the same period — how much the model beat simply holding the stock. +101.5 pp means the strategy outperformed buy-&-hold by 101.5 percentage points (pp = percentage points).
Next Trading Day Prediction
WAIT
Predicted for: 2026-07-27DOWNConfidence: 90%
Last close: $381.70
The strategy requires selling the long position because the market is in a weak bearish phase and the exit signal has triggered.
Portfolio Summary
Starting Fund
$10,000.00
Initial Capital
Current Fund
$13,488.84
as of 2026-07-24
Total Gain / Loss
$3,488.84
+34.9%
Current Position
● LONG HOLDINGEntry $401.10 · 35.3388 sharesOpen P&L: -$685.57
Performance by Month
(latest 6)| Month | Start | End | Return | B&H | Alpha | Trades | Win% | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $14,174.41 | $13,488.84 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Jun 2026 | $13,858.00 | $14,174.41 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| May 2026 | $13,693.79 | $13,858.00 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Apr 2026 | $12,907.65 | $13,693.79 | +6.1% | +9.2% | -3.1pp | 0 | 0% | Completed |
| Mar 2026 | $12,447.47 | $12,907.65 | +3.7% | -8.4% | +12.1pp | 1 | 100% | Completed |
| Feb 2026 | $12,638.36 | $12,447.47 | -1.5% | -4.5% | +3.0pp | 2 | 50% | Completed |
Prediction Accuracy by Model
| Evaluated | Accuracy | BUY Acc. | SELL Acc. | SHORT Acc. | COVER Acc. | WAITs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 66.7% | 66.7% | — | — | — | 15 |
| 69 | 66.7% | 65.6% | 66.7% | 80.0% | — | 170 |
| 3 | 33.3% | 50.0% | 0.0% | — | — | 38 |
Period Summaries
(all runs combined)| Period | Days | Start | End | P&L | Return | Alpha | Trades | Win% | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q3 | 1 | $14,174.41 | $14,174.41 | $0.00 | +0.0% | +0.0pp | 0 | — | 0.0% vs0.0% |
| 2026-Q2 | 2 | $13,707.26 | $14,201.80 | $494.54 | +3.6% | +3.6pp | 1 | 0% | 3.6% vs0.0% |
| 2026-Q1 | 61 | $12,795.45 | $12,907.65 | $112.20 | +0.9% | +22.6pp | 5 | 60% | 0.9% vs-21.7% |
| 2025-Q4 | 64 | $12,850.33 | $12,795.45 | -$54.88 | -0.4% | +6.5pp | 1 | 100% | -0.4% vs-6.9% |
| 2025-Q3 | 64 | $13,015.71 | $12,850.33 | -$165.38 | -1.3% | -6.5pp | 1 | 100% | -1.3% vs5.3% |
| 2025-Q2 | 55 | $10,000.00 | $13,015.71 | $3,015.71 | +30.2% | -0.3pp | 1 | 100% | 30.2% vs30.4% |
| Date | Close | Rec | Trade Action | Trade P&L | Unrealized | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $381.70 | WAIT | HOLD | — | -$685.57 | $13,488.84 |
| 2026-07-23 | $381.58 | WAIT | HOLD | — | -$689.81 | $13,484.60 |
| 2026-07-22 | $390.34 | WAIT | HOLD | — | -$380.25 | $13,794.16 |
| 2026-07-21 | $397.75 | WAIT | HOLD | — | -$118.39 | $14,056.02 |
| 2026-07-20 | $402.29 | WAIT | HOLD | — | $42.05 | $14,216.46 |
| 2026-07-17 | $393.82 | WAIT | HOLD | — | -$257.27 | $13,917.14 |
| 2026-07-16 | $401.10 | BUY | BUY | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-07-15 | $395.63 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-07-14 | $384.93 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-07-13 | $390.99 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-07-10 | $385.10 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-07-09 | $384.36 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-07-08 | $383.34 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-07-07 | $388.84 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-07-06 | $386.74 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-07-02 | $390.49 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-07-01 | $384.28 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-30 | $373.02 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-29 | $368.57 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-26 | $372.97 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-25 | $352.83 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-24 | $365.45 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-23 | $373.68 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-22 | $367.34 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-18 | $379.40 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-17 | $378.91 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-16 | $393.83 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-15 | $399.76 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-12 | $390.74 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |
| 2026-06-11 | $390.34 | WAIT | SKIP | — | $0.00 | $14,174.41 |