NVDA

27 runs · 2024-01-02 → 2026-03-13

Best Return

+19.0%

Best Alpha

+4.6pp

LLM Accuracy

56.0%

Total Runs

Alpha is the LLM strategy's return minus the buy-&-hold (B&H) return over the same period — how much the model beat simply holding the stock. +101.5 pp means the strategy outperformed buy-&-hold by 101.5 percentage points (pp = percentage points).

Next Trading Day Prediction

WAIT

Predicted for: 2026-03-16NEUTRALConfidence: 30%

Last close: $180.25

The key trend signals aren't fully aligned right now, so it's best to wait before making a move.

Performance by Month

(latest 6)

Month	Start	End	Return	B&H	Alpha	Trades	Win%	Status
Mar 2026	$11,969.61	$11,676.80	+0.0%	+0.0%	+0.0pp	0	0%	Completed
Feb 2026	$13,267.37	$11,969.61	-9.8%	-1.7%	-8.0pp	2	0%	Completed
Jan 2026	$12,728.41	$13,267.37	+4.2%	+1.6%	+2.6pp	0	0%	Completed
Dec 2025	$12,536.63	$12,728.41	+1.5%	+2.8%	-1.3pp	1	100%	Completed
Nov 2025	$13,789.83	$12,536.63	-9.1%	-10.9%	+1.8pp	1	0%	Completed
Oct 2025	$13,559.20	$13,789.83	+1.7%	+7.2%	-5.5pp	1	0%	Completed

Prediction Accuracy by Model

Evaluated	Accuracy	BUY Acc.	SELL Acc.	WAITs
250	56.0%	55.9%	57.1%	301

Period Summaries

(all runs combined)

Period	Days	Start	End	P&L	Return	Alpha	Trades	Win%	vs B&H
2025-Q4	64	$13,559.20	$12,728.41	-$830.79	-6.1%	-5.7pp	3	33%	-6.1% vs -0.4%
2025-Q3	64	$12,899.41	$13,559.20	$659.79	+5.1%	-16.6pp	2	50%	5.1% vs 21.7%
2025-Q2	62	$11,245.29	$12,899.41	$1,654.12	+14.7%	-28.7pp	2	50%	14.7% vs 43.4%
2025-Q1	60	$15,334.52	$11,245.29	-$4,089.23	-26.7%	-5.0pp	4	0%	-26.7% vs -21.6%
2024-Q4	64	$13,419.63	$15,334.52	$1,914.89	+14.3%	-0.5pp	2	50%	14.3% vs 14.8%
2024-Q3	64	$13,045.20	$13,419.63	$374.43	+2.9%	+5.2pp	1	100%	2.9% vs -2.3%
2024-Q2	63	$14,444.79	$13,045.20	-$1,399.59	-9.7%	-46.4pp	2	50%	-9.7% vs 36.7%
2024-Q1	61	$10,000.00	$14,444.79	$4,444.79	+44.4%	-7.0pp	3	67%	44.4% vs 51.5%

Latest 30 Trading Days

(most recent)View all →

Date	Close	Rec	Trade Action	Trade P&L	Unrealized	Portfolio
2026-03-13	$180.25	BUY	HOLD	—	-$292.81	$11,676.80
2026-03-12	$183.14	BUY	HOLD	—	-$105.59	$11,864.02
2026-03-11	$186.03	BUY	HOLD	—	$81.62	$12,051.23
2026-03-10	$184.77	BUY	BUY	—	$0.00	$11,969.61
2026-03-09	$182.65	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$11,969.61
2026-03-06	$177.82	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$11,969.61
2026-03-05	$183.34	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$11,969.61
2026-03-04	$183.04	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$11,969.61
2026-03-03	$180.05	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$11,969.61
2026-03-02	$182.48	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$11,969.61
2026-02-27	$177.19	SELL	SELL	-$481.46	-$481.46	$11,969.61
2026-02-26	$184.89	BUY	HOLD	—	-$828.45	$11,622.62
2026-02-25	$195.56	BUY	HOLD	—	-$323.38	$12,127.69
2026-02-24	$192.85	BUY	HOLD	—	$376.51	$12,827.58
2026-02-23	$191.55	BUY	HOLD	—	$198.75	$12,649.82
2026-02-20	$189.82	BUY	HOLD	—	$113.48	$12,564.55
2026-02-19	$187.90	BUY	BUY	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-18	$187.98	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-17	$184.97	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-13	$182.81	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-12	$186.94	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-11	$190.05	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-10	$188.54	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-09	$190.04	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-06	$185.41	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-05	$171.88	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-04	$174.19	WAIT	SKIP	—	$0.00	$12,451.07
2026-02-03	$180.34	SELL	SELL	-$277.34	-$277.34	$12,451.07
2026-02-02	$185.61	BUY	HOLD	—	$162.26	$12,890.67
2026-01-30	$191.13	BUY	HOLD	—	$538.96	$13,267.37